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Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II
Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful.
If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic.
As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you.
Part II
  • Letting stops breathe
  • When to change a stop
  • Entering and exiting winning positions
  • Risk:reward ratios
  • Risk-adjusted returns

Letting stops breathe

We talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise.
Let’s consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight.

Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch!
One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let’s say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure.
For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you’d want your stop to be able to withstand at least that.
If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it.
There are also more analytical approaches.
Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves.
For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size.

ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems
Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart).
Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon?
Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what ‘normal’ feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc.

Reasons to change a stop

As a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we’re going to look at that in more detail later.
There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare.
One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We’ll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are.
Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They’ll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out.
Trailing stops can also be used to ‘lock in’ profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up ‘stopping out’ at a profit - as per the below example.

The mighty trailing stop loss order
It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops.
One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea.
Let’s say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn’t respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out.
Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?

Entering and exiting winning positions

Take profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price.
Imagine I’m long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position.
The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don’t.

Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early
This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter.
Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don’t override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid.
The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this.

Entering positions with limit orders

That covers exiting a position but how about getting into one?
Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as “bids” (buy orders) or “offers” (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205.
You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don’t need to sit at the computer and wait.
Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in.
So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn’t have the trade on?!
There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position.
Scaling in is one such technique. Let’s imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don’t have a strong view on the current price action.
You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market.
Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders.

Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour
Again let’s imagine we’re bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD.
Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct.
Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven’t had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend.
You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.

Risk:reward and win ratios

Be extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important!
Once you start keeping a trading journal you’ll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you’re typical and that every other trade will lose money.
If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below.

A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable
A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders.
That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips.
One needn’t be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline.
Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don’t just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.

Risk-adjusted returns

Not all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad!
The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below.
The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility.
Would you rather have the first trading record or the second?
If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps .
A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return.
If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk.
This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ...
Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor.

Sharpe ratio

The Sharpe ratio works like this:
  • It takes the average returns of your strategy;
  • It deducts from these the risk-free rate of return i.e. the rate anyone could have got by investing in US government bonds with very little risk;
  • It then divides this total return by its own volatility - the more smooth the return the higher and better the Sharpe, the more volatile the lower and worse the Sharpe.
For example, say the return last year was 15% with a volatility of 10% and US bonds are trading at 2%. That gives (15-2)/10 or a Sharpe ratio of 1.3. As a rule of thumb a Sharpe ratio of above 0.5 would be considered decent for a discretionary retail trader. Above 1 is excellent.
You don’t really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in.

VAR

VAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let’s say you’re long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%.

A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that
This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade.
Sharpe ratios and VAR don’t give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment.
Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital
What he’s saying is don’t misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get “black swans” - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often.
These outlier events are often referred to as “tail risk”. Don’t make the mistake of saying “well, the model said…” - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment.

Coming up in part III

Available here
Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

My home-made bar replay for MT4

I made a home-made bar replay for MT4 as an alternative to the tradingview bar replay. You can change timeframes and use objects easily. It just uses vertical lines to block the future candles. Then it adjusts the vertical lines when you change zoom or time frames to keep the "future" bars hidden.
I am not a professional coder so this is not as robust as something like Soft4fx or Forex Tester. But for me it gets the job done and is very convenient. Maybe you will find some benefit from it.

Here are the steps to use it:
1) copy the text from the code block
2) go to MT4 terminal and open Meta Editor (click icon or press F4)
3) go to File -> New -> Expert Advisor
4) put in a title and click Next, Next, Finish
5) Delete all text from new file and paste in text from code block
6) go back to MT4
7) Bring up Navigator (Ctrl+N if it's not already up)
8) go to expert advisors section and find what you titled it
9) open up a chart of the symbol you want to test
10) add the EA to this chart
11) specify colors and start time in inputs then press OK
12) use "S" key on your keyboard to advance 1 bar of current time frame
13) use tool bar buttons to change zoom and time frames, do objects, etc.
14) don't turn on auto scroll. if you do by accident, press "S" to return to simulation time.
15) click "buy" and "sell" buttons (white text, top center) to generate entry, TP and SL lines to track your trade
16) to cancel or close a trade, press "close order" then click the white entry line
17) drag and drop TP/SL lines to modify RR
18) click "End" to delete all objects and remove simulation from chart
19) to change simulation time, click "End", then add the simulator EA to your chart with a new start time
20) When you click "End", your own objects will be deleted too, so make sure you are done with them
21) keep track of your own trade results manually
22) use Tools-> History center to download new data if you need it. the simulator won't work on time frames if you don't have historical data going back that far, but it will work on time frames that you have the data for. If you have data but its not appearing, you might also need to increase max bars in chart in Tools->Options->Charts.
23) don't look at status bar if you are moused over hidden candles, or to avoid this you can hide the status bar.


Here is the code block.
//+------------------------------------------------------------------+ //| Bar Replay V2.mq4 | //| Copyright 2020, MetaQuotes Software Corp. | //| https://www.mql5.com | //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ #property copyright "Copyright 2020, MetaQuotes Software Corp." #property link "https://www.mql5.com" #property version "1.00" #property strict #define VK_A 0x41 #define VK_S 0x53 #define VK_X 0x58 #define VK_Z 0x5A #define VK_V 0x56 #define VK_C 0x43 #define VK_W 0x57 #define VK_E 0x45 double balance; string balance_as_string; int filehandle; int trade_ticket = 1; string objectname; string entry_line_name; string tp_line_name; string sl_line_name; string one_R_line_name; double distance; double entry_price; double tp_price; double sl_price; double one_R; double TP_distance; double gain_in_R; string direction; bool balance_file_exist; double new_balance; double sl_distance; string trade_number; double risk; double reward; string RR_string; int is_tp_or_sl_line=0; int click_to_cancel=0; input color foreground_color = clrWhite; input color background_color = clrBlack; input color bear_candle_color = clrRed; input color bull_candle_color = clrSpringGreen; input color current_price_line_color = clrGray; input string start_time = "2020.10.27 12:00"; input int vertical_margin = 100; //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ //| Expert initialization function | //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ int OnInit() { Comment(""); ChartNavigate(0,CHART_BEGIN,0); BlankChart(); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_SHIFT,true); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_FOREGROUND,false); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_AUTOSCROLL,false); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_SCALEFIX,false); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_SHOW_OBJECT_DESCR,true); if (ObjectFind(0,"First OnInit")<0){ CreateStorageHLine("First OnInit",1);} if (ObjectFind(0,"Simulation Time")<0){ CreateTestVLine("Simulation Time",StringToTime(start_time));} string vlinename; for (int i=0; i<=1000000; i++){ vlinename="VLine"+IntegerToString(i); ObjectDelete(vlinename); } HideBars(SimulationBarTime(),0); //HideBar(SimulationBarTime()); UnBlankChart(); LabelCreate("New Buy Button","Buy",0,38,foreground_color); LabelCreate("New Sell Button","Sell",0,41,foreground_color); LabelCreate("Cancel Order","Close Order",0,44,foreground_color); LabelCreate("Risk To Reward","RR",0,52,foreground_color); LabelCreate("End","End",0,35,foreground_color); ObjectMove(0,"First OnInit",0,0,0); //--- create timer EventSetTimer(60); return(INIT_SUCCEEDED); } //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ //| Expert deinitialization function | //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ void OnDeinit(const int reason) { //--- destroy timer EventKillTimer(); } //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ //| Expert tick function | //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ void OnTick() { //--- } //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ //| ChartEvent function | //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ void OnChartEvent(const int id, const long &lparam, const double &dparam, const string &sparam) { if (id==CHARTEVENT_CHART_CHANGE){ int chartscale = ChartGetInteger(0,CHART_SCALE,0); int lastchartscale = ObjectGetDouble(0,"Last Chart Scale",OBJPROP_PRICE,0); if (chartscale!=lastchartscale){ int chartscale = ChartGetInteger(0,CHART_SCALE,0); ObjectMove(0,"Last Chart Scale",0,0,chartscale); OnInit(); }} if (id==CHARTEVENT_KEYDOWN){ if (lparam==VK_S){ IncreaseSimulationTime(); UnHideBar(SimulationPosition()); NavigateToSimulationPosition(); CreateHLine(0,"Current Price",Close[SimulationPosition()+1],current_price_line_color,1,0,true,false,false,"price"); SetChartMinMax(); }} if(id==CHARTEVENT_OBJECT_CLICK) { if(sparam=="New Sell Button") { distance = iATR(_Symbol,_Period,20,SimulationPosition()+1)/2; objectname = "Trade # "+IntegerToString(trade_ticket); CreateHLine(0,objectname,Close[SimulationPosition()+1],foreground_color,2,5,false,true,true,"Sell"); objectname = "TP for Trade # "+IntegerToString(trade_ticket); CreateHLine(0,objectname,Close[SimulationPosition()+1]-distance*2,clrAqua,2,5,false,true,true,"TP"); objectname = "SL for Trade # "+IntegerToString(trade_ticket); CreateHLine(0,objectname,Close[SimulationPosition()+1]+distance,clrRed,2,5,false,true,true,"SL"); trade_ticket+=1; } } if(id==CHARTEVENT_OBJECT_CLICK) { if(sparam=="New Buy Button") { distance = iATR(_Symbol,_Period,20,SimulationPosition()+1)/2; objectname = "Trade # "+IntegerToString(trade_ticket); CreateHLine(0,objectname,Close[SimulationPosition()+1],foreground_color,2,5,false,true,true,"Buy"); objectname = "TP for Trade # "+IntegerToString(trade_ticket); CreateHLine(0,objectname,Close[SimulationPosition()+1]+distance*2,clrAqua,2,5,false,true,true,"TP"); objectname = "SL for Trade # "+IntegerToString(trade_ticket); CreateHLine(0,objectname,Close[SimulationPosition()+1]-distance,clrRed,2,5,false,true,true,"SL"); trade_ticket+=1; } } if(id==CHARTEVENT_OBJECT_DRAG) { if(StringFind(sparam,"TP",0)==0) { is_tp_or_sl_line=1; } if(StringFind(sparam,"SL",0)==0) { is_tp_or_sl_line=1; } Comment(is_tp_or_sl_line); if(is_tp_or_sl_line==1) { trade_number = StringSubstr(sparam,7,9); entry_line_name = trade_number; tp_line_name = "TP for "+entry_line_name; sl_line_name = "SL for "+entry_line_name; entry_price = ObjectGetDouble(0,entry_line_name,OBJPROP_PRICE,0); tp_price = ObjectGetDouble(0,tp_line_name,OBJPROP_PRICE,0); sl_price = ObjectGetDouble(0,sl_line_name,OBJPROP_PRICE,0); sl_distance = MathAbs(entry_price-sl_price); TP_distance = MathAbs(entry_price-tp_price); reward = TP_distance/sl_distance; RR_string = "RR = 1 : "+DoubleToString(reward,2); ObjectSetString(0,"Risk To Reward",OBJPROP_TEXT,RR_string); is_tp_or_sl_line=0; } } if(id==CHARTEVENT_OBJECT_CLICK) { if(sparam=="Cancel Order") { click_to_cancel=1; Comment("please click the entry line of the order you wish to cancel."); } } if(id==CHARTEVENT_OBJECT_CLICK) { if(sparam!="Cancel Order") { if(click_to_cancel==1) { if(ObjectGetInteger(0,sparam,OBJPROP_TYPE,0)==OBJ_HLINE) { entry_line_name = sparam; tp_line_name = "TP for "+sparam; sl_line_name = "SL for "+sparam; ObjectDelete(0,entry_line_name); ObjectDelete(0,tp_line_name); ObjectDelete(0,sl_line_name); click_to_cancel=0; ObjectSetString(0,"Risk To Reward",OBJPROP_TEXT,"RR"); } } } } if (id==CHARTEVENT_OBJECT_CLICK){ if (sparam=="End"){ ObjectsDeleteAll(0,-1,-1); ExpertRemove(); }} } //+------------------------------------------------------------------+ void CreateStorageHLine(string name, double value){ ObjectDelete(name); ObjectCreate(0,name,OBJ_HLINE,0,0,value); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_SELECTED,false); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_SELECTABLE,false); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_COLOR,clrNONE); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_BACK,true); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_ZORDER,0); } void CreateTestHLine(string name, double value){ ObjectDelete(name); ObjectCreate(0,name,OBJ_HLINE,0,0,value); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_SELECTED,false); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_SELECTABLE,false); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_COLOR,clrWhite); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_BACK,true); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_ZORDER,0); } bool IsFirstOnInit(){ bool bbb=false; if (ObjectGetDouble(0,"First OnInit",OBJPROP_PRICE,0)==1){return true;} return bbb; } void CreateTestVLine(string name, datetime timevalue){ ObjectDelete(name); ObjectCreate(0,name,OBJ_VLINE,0,timevalue,0); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_SELECTED,false); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_SELECTABLE,false); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_COLOR,clrNONE); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_BACK,false); ObjectSetInteger(0,name,OBJPROP_ZORDER,3); } datetime SimulationTime(){ return ObjectGetInteger(0,"Simulation Time",OBJPROP_TIME,0); } int SimulationPosition(){ return iBarShift(_Symbol,_Period,SimulationTime(),false); } datetime SimulationBarTime(){ return Time[SimulationPosition()]; } void IncreaseSimulationTime(){ ObjectMove(0,"Simulation Time",0,Time[SimulationPosition()-1],0); } void NavigateToSimulationPosition(){ ChartNavigate(0,CHART_END,-1*SimulationPosition()+15); } void NotifyNotEnoughHistoricalData(){ BlankChart(); Comment("Sorry, but there is not enough historical data to load this time frame."+"\n"+ "Please load more historical data or use a higher time frame. Thank you :)");} void UnHideBar(int barindex){ ObjectDelete(0,"VLine"+IntegerToString(barindex+1)); } void BlankChart(){ ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_FOREGROUND,clrNONE); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_CANDLE_BEAR,clrNONE); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_CANDLE_BULL,clrNONE); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_CHART_DOWN,clrNONE); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_CHART_UP,clrNONE); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_CHART_LINE,clrNONE); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_GRID,clrNONE); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_ASK,clrNONE); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_BID,clrNONE);} void UnBlankChart(){ ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_FOREGROUND,foreground_color); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_CANDLE_BEAR,bear_candle_color); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_CANDLE_BULL,bull_candle_color); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_BACKGROUND,background_color); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_CHART_DOWN,foreground_color); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_CHART_UP,foreground_color); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_CHART_LINE,foreground_color); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_GRID,clrNONE); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_ASK,clrNONE); ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_COLOR_BID,clrNONE);} void HideBars(datetime starttime, int shift){ int startbarindex = iBarShift(_Symbol,_Period,starttime,false); ChartNavigate(0,CHART_BEGIN,0); if (Time[WindowFirstVisibleBar()]>SimulationTime()){NotifyNotEnoughHistoricalData();} if (Time[WindowFirstVisibleBar()]=0; i--){ vlinename="VLine"+IntegerToString(i); ObjectCreate(0,vlinename,OBJ_VLINE,0,Time[i],0); ObjectSetInteger(0,vlinename,OBJPROP_COLOR,background_color); ObjectSetInteger(0,vlinename,OBJPROP_BACK,false); ObjectSetInteger(0,vlinename,OBJPROP_WIDTH,vlinewidth); ObjectSetInteger(0,vlinename,OBJPROP_ZORDER,10); ObjectSetInteger(0,vlinename,OBJPROP_FILL,true); ObjectSetInteger(0,vlinename,OBJPROP_STYLE,STYLE_SOLID); ObjectSetInteger(0,vlinename,OBJPROP_SELECTED,false); ObjectSetInteger(0,vlinename,OBJPROP_SELECTABLE,false); } NavigateToSimulationPosition(); SetChartMinMax();} }//end of HideBars function void SetChartMinMax(){ int firstbar = WindowFirstVisibleBar(); int lastbar = SimulationPosition(); int lastbarwhenscrolled = WindowFirstVisibleBar()-WindowBarsPerChart(); if (lastbarwhenscrolled>lastbar){lastbar=lastbarwhenscrolled;} double highest = High[iHighest(_Symbol,_Period,MODE_HIGH,firstbar-lastbar,lastbar)]; double lowest = Low[iLowest(_Symbol,_Period,MODE_LOW,firstbar-lastbar,lastbar)]; ChartSetInteger(0,CHART_SCALEFIX,true); ChartSetDouble(0,CHART_FIXED_MAX,highest+vertical_margin*_Point); ChartSetDouble(0,CHART_FIXED_MIN,lowest-vertical_margin*_Point); } void LabelCreate(string labelname, string labeltext, int row, int column, color labelcolor){ int ylocation = row*18; int xlocation = column*10; ObjectCreate(0,labelname,OBJ_LABEL,0,0,0); ObjectSetString(0,labelname,OBJPROP_TEXT,labeltext); ObjectSetInteger(0,labelname,OBJPROP_COLOR,labelcolor); ObjectSetInteger(0,labelname,OBJPROP_FONTSIZE,10); ObjectSetInteger(0,labelname,OBJPROP_ZORDER,10); ObjectSetInteger(0,labelname,OBJPROP_BACK,false); ObjectSetInteger(0,labelname,OBJPROP_CORNER,CORNER_LEFT_UPPER); ObjectSetInteger(0,labelname,OBJPROP_ANCHOR,ANCHOR_LEFT_UPPER); ObjectSetInteger(0,labelname,OBJPROP_XDISTANCE,xlocation); ObjectSetInteger(0,labelname,OBJPROP_YDISTANCE,ylocation);} double GetHLinePrice(string name){ return ObjectGetDouble(0,name,OBJPROP_PRICE,0); } void CreateHLine(int chartid, string objectnamey, double objectprice, color linecolor, int width, int zorder, bool back, bool selected, bool selectable, string descriptionn) { ObjectDelete(chartid,objectnamey); ObjectCreate(chartid,objectnamey,OBJ_HLINE,0,0,objectprice); ObjectSetString(chartid,objectnamey,OBJPROP_TEXT,objectprice); ObjectSetInteger(chartid,objectnamey,OBJPROP_COLOR,linecolor); ObjectSetInteger(chartid,objectnamey,OBJPROP_WIDTH,width); ObjectSetInteger(chartid,objectnamey,OBJPROP_ZORDER,zorder); ObjectSetInteger(chartid,objectnamey,OBJPROP_BACK,back); ObjectSetInteger(chartid,objectnamey,OBJPROP_SELECTED,selected); ObjectSetInteger(chartid,objectnamey,OBJPROP_SELECTABLE,selectable); ObjectSetString(0,objectnamey,OBJPROP_TEXT,descriptionn); } //end of code 
submitted by Learning_2 to Forex [link] [comments]

Real Supply & Demand in FOREX with Precision Part Two

Real Supply & Demand in FOREX with Precision Part Two
So yesterday I created the first part to the 'post' Today I'll continue it.
All markets, equities, cars, widgets, groceries, bonds and even forex are driven by volume. Without volume there is no movement as it's the market maker to entice the trader to aggressively buy or sell based upon their sentiments of direction.
So let's first put into perspective market sentiment and what it is for this posts purpose.
Sentiment is the psychological pressure of trader expectations in movement. It's visible through intermarket analysis and even some indexes when the indexes are properly cross referenced. But sentiment is visible even when candles stop their climb or when buying pressure supports the prices on an attempt to move lower. What comes after sentiment builds it's pressure is the path of least resistance and that's really what the markets are doing. Following the path of least resistance with volume as the rivers boundaries.
Volume in foreign exchange is real.
Retail traders think that because the market is decentralized that volume isn't available. Well, the broker you connect to, and the prime broker or bank that they connect to, they source their pricing with risk management modules by analyzing aggregated volume. Aggregation is a grouping of FX liquidity streams (that all include volume levels) into one hub of liquidity housed inside a limit order book. Volume is not made available to you though. It's the playground of the banks and if you're going to have access to a tool that allows the masses to dilute their returns do you think they would let you have it freely? Nope! They would though lobby for laws (Dodd-Frank, FIFO etc etc come to mind here) they all make it more difficult for you to trade!!!! Opacity!!! But volume is very real, it only needs proper aggregation!
So how do we find valuable opportunities when studying the charts? First off, if you study the charts alone you're doing yourself a great disservice! EURUSD in any time frame is just a representation of a relationship between two currencies. You need to study the value of the underlying currencies!
What that provides you is precision entries. Let's call the entry on Candle 12 (an arbitrary number). On candle 12 you see USDCHF spike higher, that would indicate that EURUSD is going to drop 96% of the time! Oh a little insight! So you take a position short EURUSD on candle 12 in expectation that the relationship between the two currencies is going to go lower because of the strength in the Dollar.
But remember, exchange rate fluctuation is the path of least resistance. So at the point where you have found your entry short in EURUSD, there is the opposite consideration. What if I am wrong? What it if goes the other way? At what price would it show me the opposite direction and how long do I have to wait to confirm a reversal? Candle 12 is magical. It tells you what you need. You see, in ALL instances, extremes high or lows of charts are seen by changes in what's called bid/ask bounce. When bid ask bounce is breached it's giving you sentiment, volume and price all shifting directions. If candle 12 is the candle short, then the high immediately prior to candle 12 is your reversal point!
I guarantee you this is the intersection of buyers and sellers, and when one defeats the other the market changes direction. This is true for all of the entries here, if price reversed before it reached a profitable exit then the reverse would in fact be at the opposite extreme prior to the entry candle.
So we go back and visit the adage buy low/sell high but what happens in between? Proper analysis is an active participation. And just as your analysis says you should buy or sell, your analysis should also tell you how the market is reacting in the middle. If there's no change or breach in bid/ask bounce the trend is still moving.
In the attached chart. When an entry signal is confirmed, the immediate high or low prior to that entry becomes the exact reversal point. (I have circled them in yellow) In most of the opportunities shown that stop loss is a mere 2.2 pips away from the entry price and there are no reversals that were required and all signals were profitably identified. No I did not trade them, this is live analysis that runs continually. Of all the signals there is ONE blue X in the center region of the chart that almost gave a sell signal but price pressures remained in tact and thus bullish. The analysis identifies over 100 pips in movement within a range of 35 pips overall. And none of it with lagging analysis.
With proper analysis, you can maximize your returns by comprehensively understanding all market conditions. You'll minimize your losing trades to negligible frequencies, your gains will be maximized and you'll see precisely how the market moves, turns, breathes and follows the path of least resistance.
Now my purpose here is to develop market transparency for the little guy. Sure my posts attract trolls because the trolls have been burned by their own trading ignorance. So they attack those that strive for and deliver something better, in fact most of them don't know how to trade to save their life and that's their anger. I could show you a few of them who have had accounts with companies I advise or am principal of - but there are privacy rights to respect. Do I do this free? On here of course. Is it a business? I've spent over a million dollars in just research, but when I experienced how expensive it was to obtain true transparency I knew there were benefits to providing this information to retail traders.
https://preview.redd.it/367rn2d6p3s51.jpg?width=1345&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e99e1604a078b6aa0916f32be91ce16bc5196320
submitted by iTradeSocial to u/iTradeSocial [link] [comments]

Trading economic news

The majority of this sub is focused on technical analysis. I regularly ridicule such "tea leaf readers" and advocate for trading based on fundamentals and economic news instead, so I figured I should take the time to write up something on how exactly you can trade economic news releases.
This post is long as balls so I won't be upset if you get bored and go back to your drooping dick patterns or whatever.

How economic news is released

First, it helps to know how economic news is compiled and released. Let's take Initial Jobless Claims, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits around the United States from Sunday through Saturday. Initial in this context means the first claim for benefits made by an individual during a particular stretch of unemployment. The Initial Jobless Claims figure appears in the Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, which compiles information from all of the per-state departments that report to the DOL during the week. A typical number is between 100k and 250k and it can vary quite significantly week-to-week.
The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report contains data that lags 5 days behind. For example, the Report issued on Thursday March 26th 2020 contained data about the week ending on Saturday March 21st 2020.
In the days leading up to the Report, financial companies will survey economists and run complicated mathematical models to forecast the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims figure. The results of surveyed experts is called the "consensus"; specific companies, experts, and websites will also provide their own forecasts. Different companies will release different consensuses. Usually they are pretty close (within 2-3k), but for last week's record-high Initial Jobless Claims the reported consensuses varied by up to 1M! In other words, there was essentially no consensus.
The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is released each Thursday morning at exactly 8:30 AM ET. (On Thanksgiving the Report is released on Wednesday instead.) Media representatives gather at the Frances Perkins Building in Washington DC and are admitted to the "lockup" at 8:00 AM ET. In order to be admitted to the lockup you have to be a credentialed member of a media organization that has signed the DOL lockup agreement. The lockup room is small so there is a limited number of spots.
No phones are allowed. Reporters bring their laptops and connect to a local network; there is a master switch on the wall that prevents/enables Internet connectivity on this network. Once the doors are closed the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is distributed, with a heading that announces it is "embargoed" (not to be released) prior to 8:30 AM. Reporters type up their analyses of the report, including extracting key figures like Initial Jobless Claims. They load their write-ups into their companies' software, which prepares to send it out as soon as Internet is enabled. At 8:30 AM the DOL representative in the room flips the wall switch and all of the laptops are connected to the Internet, releasing their write-ups to their companies and on to their companies' partners.
Many of those media companies have externally accessible APIs for distributing news. Media aggregators and squawk services (like RanSquawk and TradeTheNews) subscribe to all of these different APIs and then redistribute the key economic figures from the Report to their own subscribers within one second after Internet is enabled in the DOL lockup.
Some squawk services are text-based while others are audio-based. FinancialJuice.com provides a free audio squawk service; internally they have a paid subscription to a professional squawk service and they simply read out the latest headlines to their own listeners, subsidized by ads on the site. I've been using it for 4 months now and have been pretty happy. It usually lags behind the official release times by 1-2 seconds and occasionally they verbally flub the numbers or stutter and have to repeat, but you can't beat the price!
Important - I’m not affiliated with FinancialJuice and I’m not advocating that you use them over any other squawk. If you use them and they misspeak a number and you lose all your money don’t blame me. If anybody has any other free alternatives please share them!

How the news affects forex markets

Institutional forex traders subscribe to these squawk services and use custom software to consume the emerging data programmatically and then automatically initiate trades based on the perceived change to the fundamentals that the figures represent.
It's important to note that every institution will have "priced in" their own forecasted figures well in advance of an actual news release. Forecasts and consensuses all come out at different times in the days leading up to a news release, so by the time the news drops everybody is really only looking for an unexpected result. You can't really know what any given institution expects the value to be, but unless someone has inside information you can pretty much assume that the market has collectively priced in the experts' consensus. When the news comes out, institutions will trade based on the difference between the actual and their forecast.
Sometimes the news reflects a real change to the fundamentals with an economic effect that will change the demand for a currency, like an interest rate decision. However, in the case of the Initial Jobless Claims figure, which is a backwards-looking metric, trading is really just self-fulfilling speculation that market participants will buy dollars when unemployment is low and sell dollars when unemployment is high. Generally speaking, news that reflects a real economic shift has a bigger effect than news that only matters to speculators.
Massive and extremely fast news-based trades happen within tenths of a second on the ECNs on which institutional traders are participants. Over the next few seconds the resulting price changes trickle down to retail traders. Some economic news, like Non Farm Payroll Employment, has an effect that can last minutes to hours as "slow money" follows behind on the trend created by the "fast money". Other news, like Initial Jobless Claims, has a short impact that trails off within a couple minutes and is subsequently dwarfed by the usual pseudorandom movements in the market.
The bigger the difference between actual and consensus, the bigger the effect on any given currency pair. Since economic news releases generally relate to a single currency, the biggest and most easily predicted effects are seen on pairs where one currency is directly effected and the other is not affected at all. Personally I trade USD/JPY because the time difference between the US and Japan ensures that no news will be coming out of Japan at the same time that economic news is being released in the US.
Before deciding to trade any particular news release you should measure the historical correlation between the release (specifically, the difference between actual and consensus) and the resulting short-term change in the currency pair. Historical data for various news releases (along with historical consensus data) is readily available. You can pay to get it exported into Excel or whatever, or you can scroll through it for free on websites like TradingEconomics.com.
Let's look at two examples: Initial Jobless Claims and Non Farm Payroll Employment (NFP). I collected historical consensuses and actuals for these releases from January 2018 through the present, measured the "surprise" difference for each, and then correlated that to short-term changes in USD/JPY at the time of release using 5 second candles.
I omitted any releases that occurred simultaneously as another major release. For example, occasionally the monthly Initial Jobless Claims comes out at the exact same time as the monthly Balance of Trade figure, which is a more significant economic indicator and can be expected to dwarf the effect of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report.
USD/JPY correlation with Initial Jobless Claims (2018 - present)
USD/JPY correlation with Non Farm Payrolls (2018 - present)
The horizontal axes on these charts is the duration (in seconds) after the news release over which correlation was calculated. The vertical axis is the Pearson correlation coefficient: +1 means that the change in USD/JPY over that duration was perfectly linearly correlated to the "surprise" in the releases; -1 means that the change in USD/JPY was perfectly linearly correlated but in the opposite direction, and 0 means that there is no correlation at all.
For Initial Jobless Claims you can see that for the first 30 seconds USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the difference between consensus and actual jobless claims. That is, fewer-than-forecast jobless claims (fewer newly unemployed people than expected) strengthens the dollar and greater-than-forecast jobless claims (more newly unemployed people than expected) weakens the dollar. Correlation then trails off and changes to a moderate/weak positive correlation. I interpret this as algorithms "buying the dip" and vice versa, but I don't know for sure. From this chart it appears that you could profit by opening a trade for 15 seconds (duration with strongest correlation) that is long USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is lower than the consensus and short USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is higher than expected.
The chart for Non Farm Payroll looks very different. Correlation is positive (higher-than-expected payrolls strengthen the dollar and lower-than-expected payrolls weaken the dollar) and peaks at around 45 seconds, then slowly decreases as time goes on. This implies that price changes due to NFP are quite significant relative to background noise and "stick" even as normal fluctuations pick back up.
I wanted to show an example of what the USD/JPY S5 chart looks like when an "uncontested" (no other major simultaneously news release) Initial Jobless Claims and NFP drops, but unfortunately my broker's charts only go back a week. (I can pull historical data going back years through the API but to make it into a pretty chart would be a bit of work.) If anybody can get a 5-second chart of USD/JPY at March 19, 2020, UTC 12:30 and/or at February 7, 2020, UTC 13:30 let me know and I'll add it here.

Backtesting

So without too much effort we determined that (1) USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the first 15 seconds after the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (when no other major news is being released) and also that (2) USD/JPY is strongly positively correlated with the Non Farms Payroll figure for the first 45 seconds after the release of the Employment Situation report.
Before you can assume you can profit off the news you have to backtest and consider three important parameters.
Entry speed: How quickly can you realistically enter the trade? The correlation performed above was measured from the exact moment the news was released, but realistically if you've got your finger on the trigger and your ear to the squawk it will take a few seconds to hit "Buy" or "Sell" and confirm. If 90% of the price move happens in the first second you're SOL. For back-testing purposes I assume a 5 second delay. In practice I use custom software that opens a trade with one click, and I can reliably enter a trade within 2-3 seconds after the news drops, using the FinancialJuice free squawk.
Minimum surprise: Should you trade every release or can you do better by only trading those with a big enough "surprise" factor? Backtesting will tell you whether being more selective is better long-term or not.
Hold time: The optimal time to hold the trade is not necessarily the same as the time of maximum correlation. That's a good starting point but it's not necessarily the best number. Backtesting each possible hold time will let you find the best one.
The spread: When you're only holding a position open for 30 seconds, the spread will kill you. The correlations performed above used the midpoint price, but in reality you have to buy at the ask and sell at the bid. Brokers aren't stupid and the moment volume on the ECN jumps they will widen the spread for their retail customers. The only way to determine if the news-driven price movements reliably overcome the spread is to backtest.
Stops: Personally I don't use stops, neither take-profit nor stop-loss, since I'm automatically closing the trade after a fixed (and very short) amount of time. Additionally, brokers have a minimum stop distance; the profits from scalping the news are so slim that even the nearest stops they allow will generally not get triggered.
I backtested trading these two news releases (since 2018), using a 5 second entry delay, real historical spreads, and no stops, cycling through different "surprise" thresholds and hold times to find the combination that returns the highest net profit. It's important to maximize net profit, not expected value per trade, so you don't over-optimize and reduce the total number of trades taken to one single profitable trade. If you want to get fancy you can set up a custom metric that combines number of trades, expected value, and drawdown into a single score to be maximized.
For the Initial Jobless Claims figure I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 25 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 30 seconds elapsed) and only trade when the difference between consensus and actual is 7k or higher. That leads to 30 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... -0.0093 yen per unit per trade.
Yep, that's a loss of approx. $8.63 per lot.
Disappointing right? That's the spread and that's why you have to backtest. Even though the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has a strong correlation with movement in USD/JPY, it's simply not something that a retail trader can profit from.
Let's turn to the NFP. There I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 75 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 80 seconds elapsed) and trade every single NFP (no minimum "surprise" threshold). That leads to 20 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... +0.1306 yen per unit per trade.
That's a profit of approx. $121.25 per lot. Not bad for 75 seconds of work! That's a +6% ROI at 50x leverage.

Make it real

If you want to do this for realsies, you need to run these numbers for all of the major economic news releases. Markit Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders MoM, Trade Balance, PPI MoM, Export and Import Prices, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales MoM, Industrial Production MoM, you get the idea. You keep a list of all of the releases you want to trade, when they are released, and the ideal hold time and "surprise" threshold. A few minutes before the prescribed release time you open up your broker's software, turn on your squawk, maybe jot a few notes about consensuses and model forecasts, and get your finger on the button. At the moment you hear the release you open the trade in the correct direction, hold it (without looking at the chart!) for the required amount of time, then close it and go on with your day.
Some benefits of trading this way: * Most major economic releases come out at either 8:30 AM ET or 10:00 AM ET, and then you're done for the day. * It's easily backtestable. You can look back at the numbers and see exactly what to expect your return to be. * It's fun! Packing your trading into 30 seconds and knowing that institutions are moving billions of dollars around as fast as they can based on the exact same news you just read is thrilling. * You can wow your friends by saying things like "The St. Louis Fed had some interesting remarks on consumer spending in the latest Beige Book." * No crayons involved.
Some downsides: * It's tricky to be fast enough without writing custom software. Some broker software is very slow and requires multiple dialog boxes before a position is opened, which won't cut it. * The profits are very slim, you're not going to impress your instagram followers to join your expensive trade copying service with your 30-second twice-weekly trades. * Any friends you might wow with your boring-ass economic talking points are themselves the most boring people in the world.
I hope you enjoyed this long as fuck post and you give trading economic news a try!
submitted by thicc_dads_club to Forex [link] [comments]

A random guide for scalping - Part V - Understanding Intraday Liquidity

Hi there guys,
Welcome back to my weekly rants. Decided to add some info that should be pretty useful to your daily trading, thanks to the comments of u/Neokill1 and u/indridcold91.
If you have not read the rest of the series, I recommend you take your time and read those before continuing with this piece (check my user activity and scroll down...)
This rant is based on this little comment I posted on the last post:
Price moves because of the imbalance between buying and selling. This happens all the time. Price move where liquidity is, and that seeking of liquidity makes the price to go up and down.
Why price extends on a particular direction? Because longer term players decide it.
So the idea behind what I'm writing about is to follow that longer-term trend, taking advantage of a counter-trend wave that is looking for intra-day liquidity. If I'm bullish on the week, I want to pair my buying with intra-day selling. Because I expect longer-term traders to push price by buying massively. And instead of riding a big wave, I want to ride that push and get out before it retraces.
And also answers to this: why for example would it make sense to draw support/resistance lines on a EUUSD chart? Why would anyone "support" the price of a spread? What are you predicting to happen by drawing those lines, that someone will exchange their currency there simply because it's the same price they exchanged it for in the past and that number is special to them?
A good question that deserves an answer
That question is a pretty good one, and one any trader worth of that name should ask himself why. Why price reacts the way it does? Why price behaves in predetermined ways? Why if I draw a line or area on specific candle places, I expect the price to react?
And the answer is simple and at the same time kinda complicated and fascinating. Why price rallies and rallies andd rallies and then suddenly it stops at a point ,and reverses? . The answer is , because there are sellers at that point. There is liquidity there. There is people at that point that decided it was worth to sell enough to reverse that rally.
All the market does is to put together buyers and sellers. If you want to buy something at some price, someone must agree with you. If no ones agrees, then you will have to offer more. When buyers and sellers agree on similar terms, price is stable. Buying and selling happens on a tight range, because both consider that particular price range worth.
But then, perhaps, someone wants to buy big. And there are not enough sellers. This big boy will dry the available liquidity , and it is hungry for more. So price will move from a balanced state to an imbalanced state. This imbalance in volume between buyers and sellers will cause the price to move up, taking all available liquidity till the monster is satiated. Then the exhaustion of bids, or buying, will cause the price to reverse to a point where buying interest is back.
The same applies for selling activity. The main take away you should get from this is simply that the market keeps moving from balance to imbalance to balance to imbalance all the time. And the points where the big bois deploy this activity of buying , of selling, of protecting levels, of slowly entering the markets, are mostly predetermined. Surprised? Most of the institutional activity happens at : 00 ,20, 50 and 80 levels.
So why drawing a line makes sense? It makes sense because when price stalls at some point, is because sellers or buyers stepped in and stopped the movement. Its a level where something interesting is happening.
It's a level where liquidity was present, and the question is, what is going to happen the next time price touches the area? Is someone stepping in to buy or sell at this point? Or perharps the first touch dried the liquidity, and there is nothing preventing price from going up again??
Lets see a real example of a trade I took today on GBPUSD, where I analyze step by step the balance and imbalance of the market liquidity in real time at those levels. The only way to see this is usingfutures. Because forex is a decentralized market and blah blah blah, and futures are centralized so you can see the volume, the limit orders through the DOM and blah blah blah....
So first things first, read well this articule : https://optimusfutures.com/tradeblog/archives/order-flow-trading
Understand well what is said there. Take it easy. Take your time. And then come back to me.
If you have followed my work, you know how I like to ride the market. I want a retracement on the most liquid moment in the market - the NY-London Overlap, and I need a daily BIAS on the pair.
For today, I'm bullish on the GBPUSD.
So lets check the pics.
https://imgur.com/a/kgev9lT
The areas you see marked on the 30 min charts are based on the price relationships that happened last Friday. As you can see, those areas are always in a place where price stalled, retraced, pushed through,came back to the area and reacted in some way. Are those black magic? Why price reacts so smoothly today on them? Ah you Criptochihuahua, this is 20/20 insight, you are lying....
Those points are marked before today's open, simply because of the price relationship I described earlier. And if you remember the earlier rant, price stalls in there because sellers or buyers were present.
So I would expect that the levels are still interesting, and we should be watching carefully how price reacts in real time.
Now, today I got at 1.2680 and got out at 1.2725. Let's check the 2nd pic, keep following the narrative with your own charts.
What you are seeing is the first touch at the big figure with the total volume chart, and the bid/ask order flow chart. You can see how the price is pulled toward that level through the exhaustion of offers being filled. You can see how exactly they are depleted at 15:51. Why? Because at the next min, you can see how there are no offers being filled, compared to the bids.
Remember, when offers are getting filled , price pulls up. When the bids are predominantly being filled, price is pulled down.
And also take a look on the volume. This is key. If an imbalance is to happen, is because there should be a huge difference between bids and asks. Good volume on such a level, good sign. Price hugging the level without good volume, the level will most likely be broken.
Look at the next pic. See the price behavior in combination with the volume? Price is hugging the level on low volume. Great signal. That means the level is not that greatly defended, at this point.
What are we looking for? We are looking for the bids to be exhausted at our next level with a good volume reaction. Watch what happens.
Next pic is our retracement , and we are watching carefully. And look at that beauty. Do you see the volume? Do you see the bids exhaustion? Do you see how the market orders are getting absorbed by the limit orders at that point? Someone does not want the price to go down. Price jumps as a result. It does not huge the level. Do you see? I'm all in, I want to take part of this trade.
But wait, there is more.... look at the next pic, because you yet have another opportunity to get into this train.... at 17:23.. Even a bigger reaction, while on the other side.... we got more hugging...
No more pics for today. You see what happens next. The level gets broken and price rallies to take the previous day high. Trade was a success.
So I hope this added some value, and explained why drawing lines is useful, and how levels are indeed defended.
P.S - I lied: Extra Pic, you got a VWAP chart with Standard Deviations. You can see how the pullback nicely fits in our long framework as well and adds confluence to the trade. Research about this :)
submitted by Cryptochihuahua to Forex [link] [comments]

An Honest Review of T3 Newsbeat Live

T3 Newsbeat Live is run by Mark Melnick, a 20-year veteran trader from New York. According to him, he made his first million at the age of 19 during the dot-com boom back in the late 90s.
He claims that his trading room is the fastest growing trading room at T3 and also the Wall Street’s #1 trading room. You can see this in the description of his videos on Youtube.
He is a big proponent of reaching the highest win rate possible in trading. He openly shares some of his trading strategies in free videos and claims that some of his strategies are batting over 70% or even 80 %.
He also often says that some of the members enjoy a win rate over 90% using his strategies.
I will let you be the judge of this.
Self-Promotion
He makes a lot of videos to attract new people into his trading room. His daily videos are uploaded on Facebook and Youtube almost daily even on Weekends (mostly excluding Friday evening & Saturdays).
In so many videos you’d hear him talking about how his trading room has an edge over other trading rooms while bashing other trading rooms as a whole.
He often talks about how his trading room bought stocks/options at the near bottom or shorted at the near top using his “algorithmic analysis” which can be applied to all markets (stocks, future, forex, crypto).
Piques your curiosity, right?
In fact, that’s how I got to give his trading room a try.
“Who in the hell wouldn’t want to catch the top & bottom in the markets, right?”
So, you would think people in his room and himself are making a killing using his algorithmic analysis?
Not so fast… (in fact, his algorithmic analysis is just drawing trendlines and identifying the most probable support and resistance)
When it works (of course, nothing works 100% of the time), you are able to catch just few cents off the top and bottom when it works if you follow his trade.
However, you have no idea how long you’d have to hold your position. Mark doesn’t know either.
So, he usually goes for nickels and dimes and rarely holds a position longer than 5 minutes.
Even if he’s good at picking bottoms and tops, you’d often risk more than nickels and dimes just to make nickels and dimes. Make sense, right?
…….
…….
…….
Also, because he gets out of his positions fast, he misses out on riding some potentially big trades.
Oh, how I wish stay in that position a bit longer. He doesn’t say but one can surmise that he often leave too much on the table.
Of course, it’s important to take your profit fast when you scalp but you consistently leave too much on the table like he does, one has to wonder if he has any system for taking profits (otherwise, it’s all discretionary guessing).
This type of bottom/top picking is not his main strategy, though.
The strategy that makes him the most amount of money might surprise you. I will get to this later.
How Mark Trades (Mark’s Trading Setups and Strategies)
Mainly, he scans the market in the morning for earnings reports, analysts’ upgrades/downgrades and other catalysts that have potential to make moves in the market.
He openly shares his mockery or insult of analysts, calling certain analysts “idiots” or “imbeciles”.
He puts on his first trade(s) early in the morning (from 9:30AM to 10:00AM Eastern Standard Time) when the market move is the most volatile.
Some of his strategies use market order during this period of volatile time using options. You can see why this can be very risky and especially on thinly traded options with side spread.
He does point out this but sometimes you hear people in the room stuck in an options position that they can’t get out.
Just like his trades from calling the top/bottom of a stock, he gets in and gets out of a position within minutes if not seconds while going for nickels and dimes while staring at 1minute and 5-minutes charts.
That applies to most, if not all of his strategies. (Yes, sometimes he does catch bigger moves than nickels and dimes.)
When you trade during the most volatile time in the morning, you’re subjected to wild moves in both directions. If you’re overly prudent or inexperienced in trading, your stop (unless very wide), has a very high chance of hitting. A lot of times it might stop you out and go in the direction that you predicted.
So, when you’ve been trading during this time, you’d probably don’t set a stoploss order or a hard stop to avoid getting fleeced.
You do have to be proactive at cutting your loss as quickly as possible. Otherwise you’d find yourself scrambling to get out your position while the bid keeps dropping.
I have to say that Mark is very cautious and he does get out of trades very fast if he has doubt.
A lot of times he lets out exhausting, heavy sighs and even murmurs some swear words when things don’t seem to go the way he wants in a trade. Besides calling certain analysts, “imbeciles” and “idiots”, this is quite unprofessional but no one in the room has the gut to point things out like this.
The irony is that he is the “head of trading psychology” at T3 and it doesn’t seem like that he doesn’t have much control over his trading psychology and let alone his emotion.
People in trading chatrooms, like a herd of sheep, as a whole exhibit herd mentality. Even in an online chatroom, you don’t often see someone ruffling feathers and say what they really want to say.
This is probably because of the certain amount of people believing whatever he says without questioning the validity and quality of his comments.
He has several strategies and according to him all of them have win rate over %70.
However, he also comes up with new strategies as often as every month. He either comes up with new strategy or tweaks his existing strategies.
According to him, the reason is that the market is always evolving and you need to constantly adapt yourself to the ever-changing market environment.
What do you think? Does this sound like someone with an edge?
And for someone who scalps for nickels and dimes, he claims to have the highest Sharpe Ratio that he has ever seen in the industry. I’m NOT making this up. He often utters remarks like “My Sharpe Ratio is one of the highest I’ve seen in my twenty-year trading career.”, “I want to create a of traders with a very high Sharpe Ratio.
How can you achieve a high Sharpe Ratio when you scalp all the time?
And let’s not even talk about commissions generated from frequent scalping.
Who cares about commissions when you can be a scalper with high Sharpe Ratio?
Now, I want to talk about something controversial about his most profitable strategy.
Chatters
According to him, he makes the most amount of money using what he calls “Chatters”. He admits he bets on this kind of trades heavily.
His chatter trades are based on the “newsflow” of big funds making a move in certain stocks and piggybacking on the same trade before others catch on.
No one knows how he exactly gets his “newsflow” and he doesn’t give a straight answer when asked.
Maybe he pays a lot for this kind of information or maybe it’s given to him for free. Who knows?
But it makes sense. The name of the room is Newsbeat Live. Without this the name wouldn’t be the same.
This is probably the only real edge that he has and it’s understandable that he doesn’t want to reveal how he get this kind of newsflow and from where.
By joining his trading room he’ll make a callout on these trades for you to take advantage of.
In order to do this kind of trade, you have to be very quick on your trigger finger.
Almost always the initial move is done within a couple of minutes, if not seconds. If you get in late, you find yourself a sucker buying at or near the top.
Also, because you want to get in as soon as you hear his “chatter” announcements, he advised people to get in within 5 seconds of each chatter announcement and use market order to get in. He said that if he had a small account, he’d bet 100% on this kind of “high-octane” chatter trades and get in and get out fast for “easy” money.
This was how chatter trades were done
…Until one they when many people got burned badly.
Back in September or October of 2019, a lot of people in the room lost a lot money because they market ordered call options contracts on a chatter trade.
The spread on that trade was something like BID: 0.5 ASK: 5.00 few seconds after he announced it.
I didn’t take that trade. No way, I’m going to buy something that has a spread like that.
If you’ve been trading options you know that this kind of spread can happen. Many people that day in the room marketed-in on the trade, taking the offer at ASK.
They found themselves buying at $5.0 per contract when someone probably bought the same contract at $0.40 or $0.50 just few seconds ago.
Someone walked away with decent profits on that trade.
This was the biggest trading chatroom fiasco I’ve ever seen.
People in the room grieving and throwing numbers of how much they had just lost. 10K, 20K, 30K and even $60K.
Could it be also that someone who lost more and didn’t want to talk about it because it’d hurt too much? And how embarrassing to talk about such a loss. I give credit to people who spoke up about it.
People were obviously distressed and what did Mr. Mark Melnick do at this moment?
Initially, he didn’t say much. But what he said he was going to walk away from the trading desk to clear his mind.
It took a while for him to come back and he mentioned that it hurt him a lot that people lost a lot of money and encouraged people not to hesitate to contact him.
I don’t think he ever said anything about that he made a mistake insinuating to load up on chatter trades. No apology since everyone who took the trade did it at their own risk. He advised people to reach out to their broker and do whatever it takes to get their trades annulled because the market makers in that trades were despicable crooks and evil.
But let’s get one thing clear. Perhaps the cold hard truth.
Since Mark is the one who announces chatter trades. he basically frontruns everyone who gets in on these trades after him. There were times when he doesn’t take his own chatter trades and lets the room have it.
But when he does, it’s a guarantee win for him.
He has some sycophantic followers in his trading room and these people are always hungry for chatter plays. I can imagine drooling over the idea of next chatter trades.
It’s human to naturally seek the least path of resistance and this type of trade requires no skill but having fast trigger finger and a platform that allows fast execution.
By taking his chatter trades, you are most likely to make money as long as you act fast to get in and get out.
The thing is, you don’t know when it’s exactly the next chatter trade is going to happen.
If you take a bathroom break, you just miss it. If you take a phone call or answer a door bell, you just missed it.
So, it requires you to be glued to your monitor(s) if you want to make the most of your subscription.
So, we went over Mark’s most profitable strategy. But wait we haven’t yet to talk about his overnight swing trades.
Mark’s Swing Trades
His overnight swing trades jokes. Yes, jokes.
A lot of his overnight trades are done just before earnings announcements when implied volatility is at the highest.
You’ve ever bought a call option just before earnings, predicted the right direction but only to find out that you still lost money next morning? This is because of the implied volatility crush post earnings. A lot of people new to options don’t know this and get taken advantage by veterans this way.
I don’t know if Mark knows or not but I witnessed him buying options this way. I think he understand the concept of implied volatility but why he gets on such trades is a mystery.
I haven’t exactly checked the result of all of his swing trades but I wouldn’t be surprised if people lost more money following his swing trades than anything in the room.
Final Word
Mark offers “free-consultation” on the phone for people who struggle in their trading.
He said that he takes a lot of phone calls but often you’d get the feeling that he is distracted, unable to give an undivided attention for his consultation.
“How would you like to get on a free consultation with a millionaire scalper who can take your trading to the next level?” Appealing isn’t it?
But would you want to get on the phone with someone who is going to give a consultation, even if he or she is distracted?
Oh, it’s a free consultation. Ok, why not? What do I got to lose?
In his videos, you’d hear him saying that he cares for everyone in his trading room and considers them as part of his family. And he runs the trading room out of his good heart and intention more than making money.
Besides he says that he makes more money from his trading than running the room.
My suggestion is that you have a look and you’d be the judge.
He does hold “open house” for his trading room from time to time.
Also, I believe that if you try his trading room for the first time, you try it for a month for about $50. As for me, he’s just another front runner using his trading room to profit with a bad sense of humor and exaggeration that make you cringe.
submitted by appplejack007 to Daytrading [link] [comments]

Evidence of Stop Farming in TD Ameritrade or Nah?

Has anyone else noticed stop farming or price manipulation on TD Ameritrade? They recently decided to close their forex trading everyday between 5 and 6pm EST. Coincidentally that's the time the presidential daily briefing occurs. They stated that they are closing forex during that time because it is the least amount of volume during that time. However it has been the most volatile hour in the past few weeks. When I call them on their price manipulation as I monitor it on other platforms they constantly recommend changing my chart settings from bid to ask or vice versa. Just a constant charade and a disappointing one. Anyone else experiencing this with TD?
submitted by lwtrd to Forex [link] [comments]

Forex Orders 101

u/OK-Face made a post with some questions about limits and stop orders. I started to write up a big comment but then figured I’d just create an “Orders 101” post in case other newbies might find it useful. If you don’t like massive walls of text, now is the time to leave!
The very basics
First you need to know a little about forex market makers. A market maker publishes two prices: the bid price (lower) and the ask price (higher). The market maker will sell you units of a currency pair at the higher ask price, and will buy units of a currency pair back from you at the lower bid price. They make money by buying units at the bid from one user and selling those units at the ask to another user, pocketing the difference.
The difference between the bid and the ask is called the spread. A narrow spread is good for users. If you buy at the ask (or sell at the bid) you only need the bid (ask) to move upwards (downwards) a little bit before you can sell (buy) back to the market maker to close the position for a profit. The spread will vary over time; the market maker wants to keep it narrow to compete for customers but wide enough to ensure they make money even when the market moves unexpectedly. When the market is stable the spread will be narrow; when the market is volatile the spread will be wide.
When someone refers to the price of a currency pair you can usually infer which price (the bid or the ask) they are referring to from the context. If they’re talking about going long (buying) then they are probably referencing the ask. If they are talking about going short (selling) then they are probably referencing the bid. Broker software usually allows you to plot both at the same time, which visualizes not only the prices by the spread (and thus the market maker’s measure of volatility).
The “market price” or “mark” is the midpoint between the bid and ask. It’s sometimes used when charting prices, since it smoothes out changes in the spread.
The details of where the bid and ask prices come from, how they differ between market makers and from inter-bank rates, and how they are related to but very different from bid/ask spreads on exchange-traded instruments like stocks are all well beyond the scope of this post. (But you should learn it eventually!)
Opening and closing a position
First, burn it into your brain that a long position is opened by buying from the market maker at the ask and closed by selling back to the market maker at the bid, while a short position is opened by selling to the market maker at the bid and closed by buying back from the market maker at the ask.
(Really a short position is a loan from the market maker that you can satisfy with units of currency pairs bought back from them at a later time. But whatever.)
When you open a new position you use one of two types of orders: a market order or a limit order.
A market order tells the market maker to fill your order as soon as your order gets to the front of the queue, no matter what the price is. If it’s a market buy to go long on a pair then the order will be filled at the ask price. If it’s a market sell to go short on a pair then the order will be filled at the bid price. The time it takes your order to get to the front of the queue is usually less than a second, but the price could change pretty dramatically in that second. A market order says “I don’t care what happens to the price between now and then, just fill my order as quickly as possible.”
A limit order goes through the order queue too, but when it reaches the front it tells the market maker to wait to fill your order until an acceptable (to you) price is available. If it’s a limit buy to go long on a pair then you specify the maximum ask price you are willing to pay. If it’s a limit sell to go short on a pair then you specify the minimum bid price you are willing to accept. If the price is already acceptable then the order is filled immediately just like a market order, otherwise it waits until it’s filled or canceled.
When you close a position you can also choose a market order or a limit order. If you have a long position then you can either submit a market sell order or a limit sell order to sell back your units at the bid. If you have a short position then you can either submit a market buy order or a limit buy order to buy back the units you shorted at the ask. These orders work just like orders to open a position, but instead of creating a new position they cancel out your existing position. (Hopefully leaving you with a profit.)
It is possible to submit offsetting orders that don’t actually cancel out one another! For example, a market maker may allow you to submit a market buy order to go long one lot of EUUSD and then separately submit a market sell order to go short one lot of EUUSD, and track those two positions separately rather than cancel them out. For this reason an order used to close out a position is sometimes clarified as “to close”, as in “market sell to close”. Most users will close positions by right-clicking the position in their broker’s GUI and click “close” (or something similar); this will automatically submit a market order (buy or sell) to close. Submitting a limit order to close may take more clicks.
Conditional orders to close
When you create an order you can attach conditional orders to close that are only submitted if the bid or ask price moves past a trigger price. You specify the trigger price and the type of order to be submitted when the trigger hits: market or limit. There are four possible combinations, but only three are commonly used.
A conditional market order to close a losing position is called a stop-loss order.
A conditional limit order to close a losing position is called a stop-limit order.
A conditional market order to close a winning position doesn’t have a name and isn’t commonly used.
A conditional limit order to close a winning position is called a take-profit order.
Generally the trigger price is compared to the price (bid or ask) that will be used to close the position. For example, a long position is closed by selling at the bid, so the trigger price for a stop-loss on a long position will be compared to the bid. Some market makers will allow you to get fancy and decide which price your trigger is compared to, which may be useful if, for example, your strategy is entirely based on the ask price but you want to use a conditional order to close a long position without worrying about the spread.
Let’s look at the three common conditional orders to close, from simplest to confusing.
Stop-loss orders
A stop-loss order is a conditional market order to close a losing position. The trigger price is set on the losing side of the position. When the bid/ask price passes the trigger price, a new market order is created to close the position. Like any market order, it is filled at whatever the bid/ask price is when the order makes it to the front of the queue.
For a long position the trigger price is less than the original ask price at which the currency pair was bought. A long position is closed by selling at the bid, so the trigger price is usually compared to the bid. When the bid price falls down to the trigger price a new market sell (to close) order is submitted. When it reaches the front of the queue it’s filled at the current bid, offsetting the position.
For a short position the trigger price is greater than the original bid price at which the currency pair was sold short. A short position is closed by buying at the ask, so the trigger price is usually compared to the ask. When the ask price rises up to the trigger price a new market buy (to close) order is submitted. When it reaches the front of the queue it’s filled at the current ask, offsetting the position.
Stop-loss orders are used as a last resort: “If my losses get too big close the position as fast as possible, even if that means closing at a less advantageous price.” It’s not uncommon for the bid/ask price to shoot past the trigger price so quickly that the price at which the position closes is quite a bit worse than the trigger price. On the other hand, it’s also not uncommon for the price to just barely touch the trigger price (triggering the placement of the market order to close) and bounce back, so that the price at which the position closes is better than the target price. (This latter scenario can sometimes make people wonder why the position was closed, since it may appear that the price never reached the trigger.)
Take-profit orders
A take-profit order is a conditional limit order to close a winning position. The trigger price is set on the winning side of the position. When the bid/ask price passes the trigger price, a new limit order is created to close the position. Like any limit order, it is only filled when the bid/ask price is better for the customer than the specified limit price.
The limit price for a take-profit order is usually the same as the trigger price. (Some market makers may allow it to be different.)
For a long position the trigger (and limit) price is greater than the original ask price at which the currency pair was bought. A long position is closed by selling at the bid, so the trigger price is usually compared to the bid. When the bid price rises up to the trigger price a new limit buy (to close) order is submitted. When it reaches the front of the queue it waits until the current bid is at least equal to the limit price, then it fills and offsets the position.
For a short position the trigger (and limit) price is less than the original bid price at which the currency pair was sold short. A short position is closed by buying at the ask, so the trigger price is usually compared to the ask. When the ask price falls down to the trigger price a new limit sell (to close) order is submitted. When it reaches the front of the queue it waits until the current ask is at most equal to the limit price, then it fills and offsets the position.
Since the limit price is usually set equal to the trigger price, and since the bid/ask price doesn’t usually reverse within the short time while the new order (to close) moves through the queue, a take-profit order usually closes almost immediately after being triggered, at a price at or very slightly above the triggelimit price. However it is possible that the bid/ask price just touched the trigger price and immediately reverses, leaving the limit order (to close) pending on the queue until the price moves favorably again.
Stop-limit orders
Finally we come to the confusing one. A stop-limit order is a conditional limit order to close a losing position. The trigger price is set on the losing side of the position. When the bid/ask price passes the trigger price, a new limit order is created to close the position. Like any limit order, it is only filled when the bid/ask price is better for the customer than the specified limit price.
Unlike a take-profit order, the limit price for a stop-limit order is usually not the same as the trigger price.
For a long position the trigger (and limit) price is less than the original ask price at which the currency pair was bought. A long position is closed by selling at the bid, so the trigger price is usually compared to the bid. When the bid price falls down to the trigger price a new limit sell (to close) order is submitted. When it reaches the front of the queue it waits until the current bid is at least equal to the limit price, then it fills and offsets the position.
For a short position the trigger (and limit) price is greater than the original bid price at which the currency pair was sold short. A short position is closed by buying at the ask, so the trigger price is usually compared to the ask. When the ask price rises up to the trigger price a new limit buy (to close) order is submitted. When it reaches the front of the queue it waits until the current ask is at most equal to the limit price, then it fills and offsets the position.
On first blush this appears to be the opposite of a take-profit order, but it behaves quite differently. Take a long position for example, and consider what happens when the bid price moves quickly down past the trigger and continues to fall. The limit sell order (to close) is submitted but suppose the limit is set close to the trigger price. Since the bid is still falling it’s on the wrong side of the limit price (for the customer) so the limit order won’t fill. A stop-limit order says “If I’m losing money and the price moves to X, try to close my position, but don’t accept anything too much worse than X.”
Because a rapid price movement may pass both the trigger and the limit, the limit needs to be set carefully to give a little “breathing room” for the limit in case of rapid price movement.
Stop-limit orders require careful calculation of triggers and limits to fix risk, or you can end up closing a position early, too late, or not at all!
Final thoughts
I hope you learned something! At the very least, I hope some newbies see that setting stop-losses, stop-limits, and take-profits involves a lot more math and understanding of the mechanics of the market than thinking “this looks like a good place to limit my losses” and clicking the mouse.
Corrections are highly appreciated! I intentionally glossed over a ton of details but if in doing so I omitted something important please let me know!
submitted by thicc_dads_club to Forex [link] [comments]

Why I moved on from Robinhood to a proper broker (and am not looking back)

Hello fellow autists. It has now been around two weeks where I've moved on from Robinhood and am now using a proper broker (TD Ameritrade, using their "Think or Swim" mobile app / desktop app). I had been using Robinhood for about 1.5 years, but didn't realize the vast amounts of benefits you get at a proper broker (described below). I wish someone had told me about all this when I first started trading, so now I'm passing on this knowledge to youuuuuu. Perhaps other brokers have most if not all of these benefits, but I don't got experience with them.
Combine having “unlimited” day trades with seeing proper indicators on a chart . . . and you can do my new day trading strategy of buying a few options when you see a setup occur (such as a stock going below the low of the day, or buying after it breaks the 200d ma). Then when the price hits a resistance point (such as the pre market highs), you can sell 50-75% of the contracts and lock in profits. Then you can add to your positions on pullbacks or just let the rest ride.
You can also link all of your accounts... And then trade with them all at once. So in a few clicks I can take a single trade that gets executed on my day trading account, my Roth IRA, and my traditional IRA
Just download “Think or swim” and try out the “paper trading” at least, it's all free. You can also open a regular account and just do all of your chart viewing and option browsing, then go into RH if you want to buy in there. PM me if you have any questions :D
submitted by Vehn2 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

First month in the forex market novice trader

First month in the forex market novice trader

https://preview.redd.it/fj33lyjgepc41.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=64c8907f65653e408b6f41bd377e9f4c566e17d8
Every newcomer who comes to the Forex currency market already knows that the main rule of trade is to buy cheaper and sell more expensive. But it’s difficult to immediately determine how high the sale price should be and what the purchase price is low enough. A trading strategy must be checked on history. This can be done manually, but the use of a trading robot or another adviser will be much faster and better. The editor of the MetaTrader trading platform allows you to assemble a robot from almost any strategy. But for this you will have to learn the MQL language or order an adviser to the programmer. For example, here https://nordman-algorithms.com/metatrader-programming/
The novice trader basically does not ask this question and having sorted out the charts a bit, having studied several simple strategies, he goes into the trade with his head. In pursuit of a fabulous amount, randomly opening and closing deals, loses the first deposit in a couple of weeks.
After a while, another month, he returns to recoup. Now his first goal is to recapture faster the loss. Opening a new deposit, he tries himself as a scalper, opens transactions on intuition and again merges the deposit. And again comes back - but already with the money borrowed.
This vicious circle can be avoided, you just need to follow simple rules and devote more time to your level of knowledge. A novice trader should first of all be concerned about how to survive in the first month in the market, and not fabulous wealth. When getting acquainted with the Forex market, you need to pay attention to maintaining your deposit, and not to increasing it.
And so, what rules do novice traders need to follow? First, you must have a strategy. This means you should have clear rules for entering and exiting the market and, ideally, rules for maintaining positions. Where to get the strategy? You will have to develop a strategy yourself, it is unlikely that any successful trader will share his best practices with you. You can take a strategy from any Forex-related website as the basis. In its original form, it is unlikely to be profitable, since no adequate trader will lay out a working strategy. But often the ideas inherent in free strategies can be used and by adding a few additional rules or filters the strategy becomes working.
In most cases, beginners trade manually, and this is correct, trading manually means you understand all the nuances of the market and trading faster. When trading manually, the work of the strategy is visible since it actually works. All its strengths and weaknesses are visible, this allows you to quickly adjust the rules and bring the strategy to perfection.
When trading manually, and in auto trading too, a psychological factor acts on the trader, which is very difficult to control. Two big problems:
  • This is the adoption of unprofitable transactions without the desire to repel them;
  • and accepting a series of profitable transactions without the desire to increase the frequency and volume of transactions.
Strict discipline and strict adherence to strategy and money management will allow us to avoid these problems. Before bidding, you must definitely assess the situation. A conservative attitude regarding the size of the trading lot should be established. This will help not only to avoid many traps, but also to stay in the market, increasing your deposit. Beginners are advised to conduct a trading session no more than 4 hours a day. It is this period of time that will help them how to enter the market, make transactions on it and exit without monetary losses.
The Forex currency market is not for everyone. Only those who really want to make money and strive for this, overcoming barriers, analyzing mistakes, improving, can achieve unprecedented heights and make a profit.
submitted by alex_fortran to u/alex_fortran [link] [comments]

main trading company

main trading company

We created this website to bring together all the tools and services you’ll need to start trading for real. If you want to start taking advantage of the markets now, without having to become an expert, our free trading signal. Whatever you’re looking for, you’ll find it with us.
Here you’ll learn the basic terminology to be a successful Forex trader. To begin learning Forex, you’ll need to have a good grasp on the basic definitions, rules and terms used by professional traders. At first, this can sound daunting but after we spell out the fundamentals, it will become clearer and you’ll be on your way to becoming a Forex trader. We will cover terms, such as; base currency, the quote currency, micro lots, mini lots, standard lots, long position, short position, pips, spread, margin and many more.
Someone who is using more than 10% of the whole equity into a trading session is probably not having a good money management strategy. Because you should always trade safe and also because the market may turn back on you and you would find yourself in a big margin problem. With good risk management, having 10% of your account invested can bring consistent returns with no problems.

Profit Rate :

Some traders can’t make 10% per year. Others can safely and consistently make 30% per month and they are not afraid to show their verified performance as a solid proof of what they offer. While taking into consideration a proper risk and money management, you should never aim to make millions in one week with a small account because that would probably mean hitting margin call. Just remember: a good strategy and analysis will always bring profits. And if at the end of the month you have only 1% profit, that means you don’t have -1% loss.

Choosing the Best Forex Broker :

In order to start trading Forex, you will need to find the right online Forex broker for you with the cash rebate program. It’s important to find the right Forex broker for your trading needs according to several important criteria, such as security, customer service, trading platform, transaction costs, live quotes and more. While reading our guide on how to choose the best FOREX BROKERS.

Forex for free :

Most Forex brokers offer many free options, services, tips and information to help you trade better. Real-time charts and news, help guides, and blogs help you understand and learn about the market in real time. There are also many “demo” accounts to try the market before putting in real money.

Why Trade Forex?

The Forex market is fast becoming the most attractive and popular market in the world. The traditional stock is no longer relevant and traders are moving fast into the Forex. We collected here a few reasons to show you why this is happening and what advantages the Forex market has to make is so popular.
We choose to focus on a few very important advantages of the Forex trading and the reasons that people choose this market:
forex is the largest financial market in the world. The daily volume of the Forex market is huge over $3 trillion per day. This makes the stability of the market very good compared to stock trading. The price in the Forex market is exactly what you see is what you get and you can follow it very easily.
Forex trading simplifies everything, there’s no clearing fees, no exchange fees, no government fees, no brokerage fees, no middlemen. The elimination of the middlemen gets the traders closer to the actual trade and makes the traders responsible for their pricing. The brokers are usually paid through a service called “bid-ask spread”.
The Forex market is open 24 hours a day. Opening on Monday morning (in Australia) and closing in the afternoon (in New York). This is great for traders that can trade all day long or in parts. You can choose the times that are convenient for your trading, day-night, when you eat or when you sleep, whenever you want.
In Forex trading you can minimize the risk by depositing a small amount that will control a larger contract value. This is controlled by leverage and can make you profitable in the Forex market. If a broker gives 50 to 1 leverage it means that with $50 deposit you can buy or sell with $2500. If you put $500, you can trade with $25,000. All this needs to be done with great risk management because high leverage can easily lead to great loss, as well as great profit.
The Forex market is huge and therefore also very liquid. This means that on every buys or sell that you make, there will be someone who will take the other side of the trade. You will never be grounded because there’s no one on the other side.
To get started you would think that you need a lot of money. The reality is that online Forex brokers have “mini” and “micro” options and some of them have a minimum of only $25. This is great for Forex beginners because it makes the trading starting point easier. I’m not saying that you need to start with the minimum, but being cautious is never bad and starting small is good for the average trader.
main trading company

Forex the best trading market :

You can easily predict the movements in the Forex market you have many repetitive patterns and it’s fairly easy to learn, recognize and analyze these movements. The prices tend to go up or down and return to the average. They stay for quite a long time up or down and this stability makes the Forex market a much easier market to follow. This gives the traders a huge advantage in controlling their trades much better than the disorder.

Risk Warning :

We always suggest our clients to carefully consider their investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. try to money management with every trade.
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. FOREX IN WORLD takes no responsibility for loss incurred as a result of our trading signals. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
FOREX TRADING IN INDIA: Forex means currency pair trading. Indian citizens can trade only currencies that have a pairing with INR. It is legal to trade with Indian Brokers providing access to Indian Exchanges(NSE, BSE, MCX-SX) providing access to Currency Derivatives. Since 2008, RBI and SEBI have permitted trading in currency derivatives. The currency pairs available for trading are USD-INR, EUR-INR, JPY-INR and GBP-INR.
submitted by Red-its to maintradingcompany [link] [comments]

r/Stocks Technicals Tuesday - Dec 25, 2018

Feel free to talk about technical analysis here (not argue against it), but before you ask any question make sure you see the following information:
Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions:
Measure: Is the security's price trending, has it dipped or is it a falling knife? Interpret: Does the current price mean investors think it's undervalued or overvalued; when did they buy/sell more and why? Predict: If price reaches a certain point, will there be a rally or get rejected?
The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as priced in): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.
TA is best used for short term trading, but can also be used for long term.
Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks
Terminology
Useful indicators
Methods or Systems
Strategies: See the TA wiki here as this will be a work in progress, feel free to reply with your own strategy.
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.
submitted by AutoModerator to stocks [link] [comments]

New Beginner info / FAQ section for futures

I feel like with all the cheating and drama going on with spot fx we should at the very least have a dedicated section on the right for guidance on futures contracts.
The shady Cypriot brokers and ones on other random islands are lying and selling a dream so let's take a look at the reality of spot fx...
Currency markets are the most liquid and active markets of any sector. However, there is also a great deal of misinformation, slick advertising, and even outright deception regarding this $2 Trillion Dollar a Day marketplace. For starters, a large percentage of that $2 Trillion is traded through what is referred to as the interbank market. The interbank market is the top-level foreign exchange market where banks exchange different currencies. This trading between banks is not accessible to retail traders and is estimated to account for the vast majority of the Trillion Dollar liquidity factor that attracts so many retail traders in the first place.
Here are a few of the reasons to trade futures:
-Level playing field for all participants
-Deep liquidity on major currency contracts
-Safety and security of central clearing
If your Forex brokerage firm uses a dealing desk, your buy and sell orders never actually reach the true Forex market. In other words, you do not have access to the inter-bank market. Instead you are buying and selling at prices set, and potentially manipulated by the dealing desk. This is known as conflict of interest.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange guarantees each transaction. Futures contracts are legally binding! This means that if you go long a currency futures contract and your speculation was correct, you will walk away from the trade with your profit even if the person that took the other side of the trade fails to pay. This is what we call counterparty risk.
Take a moment, have a break and take a look at all the horror stories on forex factory, for instance.
Whether you are a large institution or an individual trader, everyone is on equal footing when it comes to pricing currency futures. EVERYBODY gets the same price regardless of who you are (individual or mega bank). Best price wins, it is as simple as that — something that is not always the case in the fragmented OTC FX market. The spreads are also very tight if you trade liquid future contracts.
Spot fx brokers also control their price feeds. They can widen the spreads as they see fit and they can really screw you over if they want to. Believe me when I say that most fx brokers don't want you to win! Even the ones that claim to have liquidity providers... Those are nothing but price feeds. Quotes. Nothing more....
And Forex firms offering a "fixed" 3-5 point spread may not be charging traders commission outright, or even in a form that shows up on an account statement, but there are significant costs built into the synthetic market that they provide to you.
No middle man, no market maker. Yes, Forex is an electronic market, but your order still ends up on a "dealing desk" where a human handles your order. Or an algorithm... Basically, a Market Maker. He could make you or break you. With E-mini Futures you have a level playing field. You trade on a centralised and CFTC regulated exchange. Whether you're Goldman Sachs or Joe from Idaho, you get equal treatment!
If you're worried about Liquidity - 1.5-3m contracts trade hands everyday on the S&P 500 E-mini Futures Contract. If you want in or out of a position, there is almost always someone waiting and willing to take the other side of your trade (24/5) just 1 tick away. This simply isn't true for all Forex Pairs.
Low Cost of Doing Business - Commissions on a self directed SP500 E-mini Trade (ES) should be no more than $3.00 per side or $6.00 per round turn. While many Forex Brokers tout "Zero Commission", we all know there's no free lunch. Forex Brokers don't need to charge a commission because they make money off of the bid/ask spread "they create" and then take the other side of your trade. Run the numbers... for every $100 in profits or loss, you will spend a larger % in "cost of doing business" in the Forex Market than you will in the S&P E-mini Market. Don't take my word for it... go take some real trades and you'll quickly see the truth.
Zero Interest - If you you trade the ES intraday, expect to put up $500 per contract as a "bond" for lack of a better term. That's it. No hidden cost. Forex however, has a "cost of carry" associated which means interest may be charged or paid on positions taken.
Fiduciary Responsibility - Even regulated US Forex firms are not required to segregate customer funds. If a regulated firm goes under, you do not have the protection of the CFTC and the NFA as you do in the Futures Markets.
Turn ON The Volume Please - In Forex, since there is no centralised exchange, it is impossible to get a true read on volume. Not so with the S&P 500 "ES" E-mini. Simply turn on the volume indicator and you have exact numbers for Volume Analysis. GS and CITI have huge research departments with hundreds of employees, but they know nothing about volume that you don't know via a free indicator on your direct access trading platform. Just one more example of the level playing field we constantly speak of.
Centralised Clearing - All trades are cleared via the CME - Chicago Mercantile Exchange. All trades, including time and sales, are public information and posted in real time.
Edit: By the way, if you're worried about discrepancies, currency futures charts look almost exactly the same as their spot fx siblings! So you can easily apply your current strategy to this market, too!
A great example would be "M6E" vs "EUUSD"
SO GUYS, LET'S ACCEPT REALITY AND LET'S DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT. DO YOU AGREE?
Source: cfrn.net
submitted by Fighterboy89 to Forex [link] [comments]

[EVENT] Market shock mitigation & stimulus

Ministry of Finance of the People's Republic of China, Sanlihe, Xicheng District, Beijing
 
Shock Mitigation: Market and Sector Responses
 
Amidst a dip in the normally resilient Chinese economy, analysts and officials have already begun to announce a revised, minor economic stimulus, aiming to to cushion the impact of market turmoil on already sluggish consumption and cushion ongoing trade tensions with the West; a byproduct of a decades long trade war. At the same time, China’s economic growth has slowed to its lowest rate for three decades and private companies, which account for 60 percent of the country’s GDP, have begun to struggle to access the funds they need to survive - as a result of Beijing’s deleveraging campaign, aimed at reducing debt and risky lending since 2020.
Officials cautioned a modest impact from the initial measures on several critical sectors, including export demand which has been damaged by offloading of American contracts, property sales in smaller cities, and passenger car sales, which continue to face strong headwinds.
 
Internal Economic Measures
 
Officials have begun to turn and pull various economic levers and knobs, aiming to boost market confidence, banking on the successful and level course the administration has charted since the beginning of the trade conflict, including having successfully prevented and even boosted capital reserves over the past five years far across the USD $3 trillion mark.
 
 
Yuan Adjustment
 
The Yuan is currently pegged in a "managed floating rate" against the USD at ¥6.2/$1. To ease the pressure on Chinese exporters driven by US tariffs, and to ensure that exports remain competitive especially in critical developing markets - which Beijing is now seeking to dominate, as has been for years - the PBOC has instituted a small change to the managed reference rate. This is not referred to as a devaluation in any way.
 
 
Beijing is looking to quietly engineer a 2pc reduction in the CNY in a single sweep, with a maximum trading rate falling against to ¥7/$1. However, Yang Gi, Deputy Minister of the PBOC, has put out a statement noting:
 
"The assumption that the People's Bank is attempting to engineer a ten percent devaluation is groundless. The volatility in the market is currently under careful control, and is largely in relation to American financial pressures. However, the PBOC stands ready to step in with capital control measures - including forex buybacks of the Yuan - if the market turns sour."
 
Specific Industry Stimulus - Moving Away from America
 
Party officials and Financial deputies have examined at the situation in each of the general tariffed areas excepting automobiles; steel/iron, aluminum, textiles, industrial machinery, and heavy manufacturing. In several cases, demand is incredibly saturated domestically; in others, the addition of SCO/RCEP FTAs and the progress of the Silk Road to Western Asia and Europe have insulated the sectors. However, officials also view this as a chance to rebalance growth in several over-capacitated sectors, a long standing goal, and shift dependence away from the U.S. for good.
 
 
Automotive parts and finished exports have not been given specific attention due to the second part of the package, where reciprocal measures will soon be imposed; leading to the belief that American car parts manufacturers will soon lobby the government to remove the shortsighted 30% duty.
submitted by S01780 to GlobalPowers [link] [comments]

r/Stocks Technicals Tuesday - Nov 27, 2018

Feel free to talk about technical analysis here (not argue against it), but before you ask any question make sure you see the following information:
Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions:
Measure: Is the security's price trending, has it dipped or is it a falling knife? Interpret: Does the current price mean investors think it's undervalued or overvalued; when did they buy/sell more and why? Predict: If price reaches a certain point, will there be a rally or get rejected?
The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as priced in): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.
TA is best used for short term trading, but can also be used for long term.
Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks
Terminology
Useful indicators
Methods or Systems
Strategies: See the TA wiki here as this will be a work in progress, feel free to reply with your own strategy.
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.
submitted by AutoModerator to stocks [link] [comments]

A few basic questions regarding Forex.

Hi, I've just started to dabble a bit with forex trading on Forex.com's demo account. I have experience with leverage trading crypto (Bitmex) so I know my way around charts/indicators/leverage etc, but one thing I don't understand completely is WHY is there a spread?
As far as I understood the spread is basically the broker taking fees on your trade. With Bitcoin trading for example when I sell I fill another person's order directly, but here it seems that I send my money to the broker and then he does his magic and fills person B's order, and takes a fee for that (thus the spread). Is this correct?
And the second questions, on Forex.com my chart has 3 settings (bid/ask/mid). Which is best to use and chart on? Because of the bid/ask spread it's a bit confusing when charting and the candles don't really reflect the price. What exactly is the "MID" option on the chart? Is it just a middle ground between the bid and ask charts?
My profitability has been around 1% a day but I don't really think much about it because it could be beginner's luck. What do full-time forex traders make per week in terms of % profit?
Thanks.
submitted by CIA_Bane to Forex [link] [comments]

r/Stocks Technicals Tuesday - Dec 11, 2018

Feel free to talk about technical analysis here (not argue against it), but before you ask any question make sure you see the following information:
Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions:
Measure: Is the security's price trending, has it dipped or is it a falling knife? Interpret: Does the current price mean investors think it's undervalued or overvalued; when did they buy/sell more and why? Predict: If price reaches a certain point, will there be a rally or get rejected?
The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as priced in): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.
TA is best used for short term trading, but can also be used for long term.
Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks
Terminology
Useful indicators
Methods or Systems
Strategies: See the TA wiki here as this will be a work in progress, feel free to reply with your own strategy.
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.
submitted by AutoModerator to stocks [link] [comments]

Understanding Chart Patterns for Online Trading - YouTube Forex Trading: USD/INR: Best Trading Strategy: Live Chart ... How To Read Forex Charts - YouTube How to analyse Forex trading charts - Technical Analysis ... Forex Trading the Daily Chart: How to Catch BIG Moves ... How To Analyze FOREX Charts  SIMPLE TIPS - YouTube 2.2 Bid, ask and the spread in trading - YouTube

The current live price shown on any MT4 chart, by default, is the BID price. The MT4 chart does not show the ASK Price. So how would you enable ASK price in an MT4 chart. It is very simple, follow these steps: Click “Chart” On Your Mt4 Platform. Scroll down and click “Properties” Click the “Common” tab and check “Show Ask line”. Categories Forex Trading Terminologies. 2020 ... Bonus: Forex Chart Patterns Cheatsheet. Click here to download our cheat featuring all the patterns that were explained in this guide. Your Turn. To sum up, the forex chart patterns technical analysis is a crucial part of the Forex price action trading. We had a look at the most common price formations and which ones are our favorites to trade. As we know from theory, the bid price (sell price) represents the maximum price that a buyer is willing to pay for security, for example, forex pair price. The ask price (buy price) represents the minimum price that a seller is willing to take for that same security. By default in MT4 and MT5 bid price (sell price) can be seen but ask price usually is not visible. Risk Warning: Trading leveraged products such as Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors as they carry a high degree of risk to your capital. Trading such products is risky and you may lose all of your invested capital. Before deciding to trade, please ensure that you understand the risks involved, taking into account your investment objectives and level of experience. World Currencies - Bid: The highest price that a buyer is actively willing to buy a currecy for. forex trading PRICE CHART STYLES. Price charts represent price action of a trading asset for analysis and decision making and come in many different forms. LINE GRAPH A line showing the ask price, bid price or average. CANDLESTICKS Candlesticks show the open, close, maximum, and minimum values for each period. OPEN-HIGH-LOW-CLOSE BAR The OHLC is similar to the HLC bar. In addition to showing highs and lows ... Hi, I have been trading for a while now and have been trading using a BID chart, recently I've discovered the option to use an ASK chart which changes the candlesticks I see quite a bit. I understand that if I'm thinking about buying I should use the Bid chart and sell on the Ask chart (Or is it the other way around? Ive never tried it before)

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Understanding Chart Patterns for Online Trading - YouTube

This video shows how simple it is to analyse a Forex chart, with a USDJPY example we execute a top down analysis using strictly tools and price action. This ... #forex #forexlifestyle #forextrader Want to join the A1 Trading Team? See trades taken by our top trading analysts, join our live trading chatroom, and acces... In this video, we discussed the Trading Strategy of USD/INR. By using this simple trading technique we will easily earn a very good profit. We will analyse t... Everyone analyzes FOREX charts differently. In this video, I reveal the simple and straightforward way that I have been analyzing charts lately which has wor... Chart Patterns are well established in forex and CFD trading and work as well for cryptocurrency investing. There are numerous chart patterns and lots of gim... http://www.capexforextrading.com/forex-brokers-software We discuss the difference between the bid and the ask and guide you through an example of spreads. Re... How To Read Forex Charts right now so you can start making money trading Forex. GET YOUR FREE FOREX TOOLKIT Here – https://www.vintageducation.com/toolkit In...

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